8:15am NY Time US ADP NFP Change Forecast -31K Previous -84K
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY +50K SELL -100K
Our focus will be on the ADP NFP Employment Release once again today, and because ADP is the largest private payroll processing providers in the U.S., traders tend to pay more focus to this release. ADP releases its version of Non-Farm Payroll numbers about 2 days before the actual NFP based on it’s proprietary data. About 80% of the time ADP’s release will go in tandem with the official NFP, but the for the 20% of the exceptions, we’d get figures that could be totally off from the official NFP forecast.
This is of course an excellent indicator for the general risk sentiment of the market as U.S. Employment situation is a global concern; and of course this release sometimes serves as a preview of the NFP on Friday; if the numbers comes out as a surprise of at least 70K more or less from the Forecast of -31K, we should look to trade in the direction of the surprise.
As I usually don’t trade the ADP figure but rather use this release as a reference for future market trend; however, I assume that most investors are likely to do the same, but if the deviation of 70K is actually hit, true speculators will probably have not problem jumping into the market, and this will undoubtedly change market perception on Friday’s NFP release, therefore it is best to be around your computer during the release time rather than finding out what happened hours later and perhaps missed the entire movement.
Related posts:
- US ADP NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) Change 12/02/09
- US ADP Non-farm Employment Change 03/31/10
- US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 01/06/10
- US ADP NFP Nonfarm Payroll 03/03/2010
- Trading Strategy For US ADP NFP Employment 06/03/10
- Trading Strategy For US ADP NFP Employment 06/30/10
- US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 11/04/09
- Forex News Trading Plan For US ADP NFP Employment 10/06/10
- US ADP Non-Farm Payroll Change 09/02/09
- ADP NFP Trading Strategy 11/03/10
