4:30am (NY Time) UK Retail Sales Forecast 1.3% Previous -0.3%
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 1.9% SELL 0.7%
We’ll be looking to tradethe Retail Sales release today from UK, it is a month on month release and it’s a direct measurement of consumer activities at the retail levels. A higher release is generally good for the economy, thus better for it’s currency; a lower release is considered as negative for the economy and not good for it’s currency. Retail Sales makes up a hugepart of the GDP, and the effect of this release could be very profound given the current risk averse condition of the market.
Our tradable deviation or surprise factor for UK Retail Sales is 0.6% on the Headline number. If our deviation is hit, we can expect the market to move at least 50 pips within the hour, with a historical accuracy of 72%. However, with the current USD rally from risk aversion sentiment, a worse than expected release may spark another GBP selloff whereas a better than expected release may not be convincing enough for traders to commit on a long Sterling position. However, the game plan is that if we do not get at minimum of 0.6% in deviation or difference from the expectation, we won’t take a trade as the release figure might not be safe enough for a successful trade based on historical data… But if we do get our deviation, pay particular attention to the initial market spike… if you don’t see follow-through (or momentum), then it’s probably best to stay out.
As always, I’ll post the video of the trade (in the event I take a trade) back in this post. Hopefully we’ll get a strong release.
Related posts:
- UK Retail Sales m/m 02/19/2010
- UK Retail Sales 03/25/2010
- Forex Trading Plan For UK Retail Sales 04/22/10
- UK Retail Sales m/m 12/17/09
- Forex News Trading UK Retail Sales m/m 02/18/11
- Forex News Trading UK Retail Sales m/m 01/21/11
- Trading Plan For UK Retail Sales 06/17/10
- Forex News Trading UK Retail Sales 12/16/10
- Forex News Trading UK Retail Sales 10/21/10
- Forex News Trading UK Retail Sales m/m 03/24/11
