8:30am (NY Time) US Core Retail Sales Forecast 0.3% Previous 1.2%
8:30am (NY Time) US Retail Sales Forecast 0.4% Previous 1.3%
ACTION: USD/JPY (CORE) BUY 1.0% SELL -0.3%
We’ll be focusing on the Core Retail Sales figure out of U.S. today. We have both retail sales (healine and core, also know as ex auto) scheduled to be released at exactly 8:30am along with Trichet’s press conference; however, since Trichet may delay his press conference a bit, we should focus on this news and then possibly go back to Trichet later. Obviously it is important to trade other pairs than the EUR/USD.
It is important that there is no conflict with these numbers or this will be an automatic no trade. The Core release is usually more accurate reflection of the activities at the retail level because it excludes the volatile Automotive components; the headline Retail Sales should be in the same direction as of the Core reading most of the time…
As we could probably expect the market to react based on this release as the U.S. Fundamental outlook is starting to affect price action; therefore I may have to focus on other pairs such as the GBP/USD as well as the USD/JPY.
DEFINITION:
“(Retail Sales Core) Derivative of Retail Sales that excludes the Automobile Sales component. Automobile Sales make up roughly 25% of Retail Sales, but they can be very volatile from month to month and can distort the picture. Retail Sales with the exclusion of this volatile component is thought to be a better indicator of the underlying trend in consumer spending.”
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