7:30pm NY Time AU Retail Sales Forecast 0.4% Previous 0.3%
ACTION: BUY 1.0% SELL -0.2% AUD/USD
We will be to look for a deviation of 0.6% from the forecast release of 0.4% and we will focus on the Retail Sales release instead of the Trade Balance, but of course we will only trade if there is no conflict between both releases, or it is probably best to sit out as the market may be extremely difficult to read. If we get a 1.0% or -02%, we’d get in either on a LONG or SHORT trade depending on the release with a high probability of seeing the market move over 50 pips in the next 2 hours.
The Australian Dollar has been showing signs of recovery from recent USD bullish rally and because of the long term bullish outlook on this currency we’ll probably see limited downside potential. However, it’s important to note that if USD were to gain based on its long-term outlook, AUD/USD may be re-valued lower against USD (0.8500 in the long term in my opinion).
DEFINITION
“Measures the value of sales at the retail level. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency because Retail Sales make up a large portion of consumer spending, which is a major driver of the economy and has a sizable impact on GDP. Traders payclose attention to Retail Sales because it is usually the first significant indicator of the month that relates to consumer behavior and is susceptible to surprises.”
Related posts:
- Australian Retail Sales Forex Trading Strategy
- Australia Retail Sales 02/03/10
- Australia Retail Sales Trading Plan 05/31/10
- Australia Retail Sales m/m 03/01/2010
- Australia Retail Sales m/m 12/02/09
- Australia Retail Sales 03/30/2010
- New Zealand Retail Sales m/m 11/11/09
- Australia Retail Sales m/m 09/08/09
- New Zealand Retail Sales m/m 10/12/09
- New Zealand Retail Sales 01/20/10
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“..but of course we will only trade if there is no conflict between both releases..”
When is conflict deviation for AU Trade Balance?
Conflict means when we have a better than expected release on Trade Balance but with a worse than expected release in Retail Sales, or vice versa. Both should be either better than expected or worse than expected for a possible trade.
Hey Henry,
I traded the this indicator, but it as you can see it doesn’t really work – not even a couple of hours later. So what is going on since such a great release doesn’t move the market???
Right, in the trade room we lost 30 pips on this release as well. I think the reasons are two-fold, 1) Low liquidity, and 2) General USD strength through out the week. However, I think the lower liquidity were to blame as traders are reluctant to commit. Hopefully we’ll see better market condition next week.
Henry
I made 65pips on this trade because i enter during the nzd trade balance i bet on the aud keeping the momentum before the retaile sales.
Henry, why dont you trade european news????
german retail sales
german unemployment
etc
hw can i gain access to your live trade room in other to get live alarts as you trade
My traderoom registration has closed until March 2010.
Signup for the newsletter and I’ll notify you once it’s open.
Henry
Hi HENRY,
Your information on Forex could be rewarding if your instructions are adhere to.Keep it up.
how much do u bill for access to your trade room?
watching your trade vedeo on line is pretty diffecult due to network type please how do i download if to ease access…thanks for the wounderful job!
Access to trade room is reserved for Mentoring students.
You can signup in March 2010 when I reopen registration.
Henry
watching your trade video on line is pretty difficult due to network type please how do i download if to ease access…thanks for the wonderful job!
Hmm there is no download available for my videos. You can only watch it online. If where you live in Nigeria does not provide reliable internet access, then there is nothing I can do…
Henry
Dear henry, i just want to ask you,why don’t you trade at thursday jan 28, althought there are 3 event( core durable goods order,unemployment claims and fed chairman nomination)?
2. We trade after the news already release right? do you use instant order or pending order?
None of those news are deemed tradable in my opinion… and I just skip them.
Instant order, Ron.
Dear henry, I just wondering why don’t you place pending order before the news release?
I always get difficulty when to jump into the market after the news. the platform always busy or requote,could you explain why? thx
Maybe you should ask your dealer that.
When you place pending order you could very easily get slipped and risking your order being picked up by the pre-news volatility.
Henry
hi henry,i really appreciate all your good works mostly the
daily news alerts…
there was a video on pre news trading you once posted to my mail box actually i lost it.i have been searching if i could still see it…please send the pre news trading video to me,there are things i want to learn from it…once more thanks
do you use autoclick program during news trading or you make order manually?
what’s your opinion about trading with EA,robot? thank you very much
thank you liu !u have been my inspiration in this business and i really appreciate….believe this i have made u my MENTOR…and i look up to see you some days