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Canada Core CPI m/m 12/17/09

by Henry Liu on December 16, 2009

7:00am (NY Time) CA Core CPI m/m   Forecast 0.2%   Previous 0.1%
ACTION: USD/CAD          BUY -0.1%       SELL 0.5%

We will be trading the Core CPI release from Canada and our deviation for this release based on historical track record is 0.3%, therefore I’ll be looking for tradable figures of 0.5% or better to SELL USD/CAD or a -0.1% or worse to BUY USD/CAD. 

USD/CAD has been consolidating over recent gains and with U.S. economic outlook improving significantly, my longer term view on the USD/CAD pair is actually bullish and we should see 1.1000 as soon as early 2010.  Therefore, unless we do get a stronger CPI release, the general direction will remain unchanged for USD/CAD, which is LONG.

It is also important to take the context of the market into consideration as pre-release sentiments are very important.  If the market are buying CAD ahead of this release, expect some BUY on rumor SELL on news type of reaction immediately after the release.

DEFINITION:

“CPI, Consumer Price Index, is a statistical estimate of the movement of the prices of goods and services bought for consumption purposes by households. Its computation uses price data collected for a sample of goods and services from a sample of sales outlets in a sample of locations for a sample of times and estimates of the shares of the different expenditures in the total covered by the index which are usually based upon expenditure data obtained for sampled periods from a sample of households(wikipedia).”  It is also known as the “True Cost of Living”.

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