UK Retail Sales m/m 12/17/09

4:30am (NY Time) UK Retail Sales   Forecast 0.5%   Previous 0.4%
ACTION: GBP/USD         BUY 1.1%       SELL -0.1%

We’ll be focusing on the Retail Sales release today, which is a direct measurement of consumer activities at the retail levels.  A higher release is good for the economy, thus better for it’s currency; a lower release is considered as negative for the economy and not good for it’s currency.  Retail Sales makes up a substantial part of the GDP, and the effect of this release could be very profound given the low liquidity condition of the market.

Our tradable deviation or surprise factor for UK Retail Sales is 0.6% on the Headline number. If our deviation is hit, we can expect the market to move at least 50 pips within the hour, with a historical accuracy of 72%.  If we do not get at minimum of 0.6% in deviation or difference from the expectation, we are like not take a trade as the release figure might not be safe enough for a successful trade based on historical data…  With recent USD strength, I’ll take extra precaution going against the trend.

As always, I’ll post the video of the trade (in the event I take a trade) back in this post.  Hopefully we’ll get a strong release.

Related posts:

1. UK Retail Sales m/m 01/22/10
2. UK Retail Sales 03/25/2010
3. UK Retail Sales m/m 02/19/2010
4. Forex News Trading UK Retail Sales m/m 01/21/11
5. Trading Plan For UK Retail Sales 06/17/10
6. Trade Plan For UK Retail Sales 05/20/10
7. Forex Trading Plan For UK Retail Sales 04/22/10
8. Forex News Trading UK Retail Sales 12/16/10
9. Forex News Trading UK Retail Sales 10/21/10
10. Forex News Trading UK Retail Sales m/m 03/24/11

Tagged as: Consumer Consumption, currency, economy, Expectation, GBP, GBP/JPY, GBP/USD, GDP, Headline Number, market sentiment, Measurement, retail level, Retail Sales, Sales Forecast, Sterling, UK, uk retail sales