8:30am (NY Time) US NonFarm Payroll Forecast -120K Previous -190K
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY -50K SELL -200K
We will be trading the NFP release number today, which is expected at -120K with a previous release of -190K; if you remember what happened last NFP, you’d know that the release consensus expectation slightly, but with postive benchmark revisions of last 3 months’ NPF releases, we actually got about +70K of deviation… However, these positive releases from past revisions didn’t really matter to traders as the Unemployment Rate broke above the 10.2%, which brought an immediate risk aversion sentiment as we saw stronger JPY across the board…
Today we’ll wait for the numbers to come out, but will not take any trade YET, even if we get our tradable figures (-50K or -200K). We’ll wait for a possible revision to the previous release number, which is once again -190K, as the market usually overreacts with the Revision; chances favor for this trade to work out if we do not get conflicting releases between the revision and the actual release.
Then the next step is to wait for the Unemployment Rate, which is at 10.2%, and as stated above, it did cause a devastating impact on risk appetite sentiment. So if the Unemployment Rate were to surprise higher, which from a special news release yesterday from the White House that we might see a higher Unemployment Rate, market will go from minor risk aversion to major sell-offs depending on the actual release. I’ll say that anything less than 10.4% should be ok, but anything above the 10.5% will probably bring about another risk aversion rally.
Of course, as usual, I will trade this release live and post the recording back in this blog. Therefore, stay tuned.
DEFINITION
“Measures the change in number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency. Job creation is an important indicator of economic health because consumer spending, which is highly correlated with labor conditions, makes up a large portion of GDP. This report is the first of the month that relates to labor conditions, making it susceptible to big surprises.”
Related posts:
- US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 02/05/10
- US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 01/08/10
- US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 11/06/09
- Forex News Trading US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Change 03/04/11
- US Nonfarm Payroll NFP Employment Change 03/05/2010
- Forex News Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) Employment 04/01/11 Analysis
- US NFP Nonfarm Payroll Employment Change 04/02/10
- Forex Trading Strategy For Nonfarm Payroll Employment Change (NFP) 07/02/10
- Forex News Trading Nonfarm Payroll Employment (NFP) 02/04/11
- Forex News Trading US NPF Nonfarm Payroll Employment 09/02/11
{ 7 comments… read them below or add one }
Henry iam a Nigerian, how possible is it going to be for me to join ur mentoring programme. VE seen ur mail requesting me to reply soon.thanks
henry u talk about time filter in your newsprofiteer how can i use it? when is lunch time u talk about in ur e-book?
Eme:
Look at the reversal times covered in the market cycle chapter. Thanks,
Henry
what will be effect of employment news on USD?
Any reason why you choose USD/JPY for this news what abt eUr/USD?
Yes, both USD and JPY are considered as carry currencies and safe-haven shelters. So we’ll get the most pure market movement without much of noise.
\"I’ll say that anything less than 10.4% should be ok, but anything above the 10.5% will probably bring about another risk aversion rally.\"
Is yhis conflict with Unempl. Rate just in one direction?
You should pay more attention on the unemployment rate than the actual NFP release should the rate goes over 10.5%