ECB Minimum Bid Rate Decision (Interest rate decision) 12/03/09

7:45am (NY Time) EU ECB Rate Decision  Forecast 1.00%  Previous 1.00%
ACTION: EUR/USD       N/A

It is widely expected that ECB (European Central Bank) is likely to leave its official interest rate once again at 1.00%, or unchanged.  Analysts surveyed seem to agree that it is too soon for ECB to hike interest rate.  ECB’s next interest rate move is likely to be a hike, but it probably won’t take place until the end of first quarter of 2010 as I’ve pointed out in the analysis during last ECB Rate Decision.

Furthermore ECB is still plaqued over the imbalanced economic recovery of its member countries, especially with the recent disappointment over France’s GDP… Therefore there would be no justification for a rate hike, regardless of what speculators are thinking.  However, in order to fight against growing concerns over inflation, ECB has already started a series of withdrawals of their liquidity program, or Quantitative Easing, which means that chances for a surprise rate hike would be much less possible.

And of course, judging from past track records, ECB is not in the habit of surprising the market as the implication of a surprise on the world’s most traded currency pair (EUR/USD) would upset economy, I do not expect to see a surprise today..

But of course, we should still be around during the release just in case ECB decides to surprise the market, but most likely we won’t see much of a market volatility after the release as the real market mover will be the 8:30am Trichet Press Conference, which I’ll be trading it live.

Related posts:

1. ECB Minimum Bid Rate Decision 11/05/09
2. ECB Minimum Bid Rate Decision 09/03/09
3. ECB Minimum Bid Rate Decision 10/08/09
4. Trade Plan For RBA Interest Rate Decision 09/07/10
5. Forex Trading Strategy on RBA Interest Rate Decision 10/04/10
6. Forex Strategy For AU RBA Interest Rate Decision 08/01/11
7. Forex News Trading Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision 12/06/10
8. Forex News Trading For RBA Interest Rate Decision – 11/01/10
9. RBA Cash Rate Decision 11/30/09 (Interest Rate Decision)
10. Forex News Trading EU ECB Interest Rate Decision 05/05/11

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