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UK Services PMI 12/03/09

by Henry Liu on December 2, 2009

4:30am (NY Time)   UK Service PMI      Forecast 57.1     Previous 56.9
ACTION: GBP/USD                 SELL 55.00     BUY 59.00

Our focus will be on the Services PMI figure today and we’ll look for a minimum deviation of 2.0 from the forecast release figure.  If we get at least 59.0 or better, we could see further demand in the GBP that should justify for LONG trades on GBP/USD or GBP/JPY pairs.  If we get a 55.0 or worse release, GBP could weaken or at least show a quick profit taking reaction from the overnight bullish move.

As PMI’s are leading indicators that can set the tone for December for GBP, especially the UK Services PMI’s as UK’s economy is 72% services based; therefore as traders look for signs of recovery in UK’s economy, Services PMI is probably one of the top indicators for that.

Definition:

“The Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (CIPS) Services Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector, with a reading above 50 indicating expansion. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency. To produce the index, purchasing managers are surveyed on a number of subjects including employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories. Traders watch these surveys closely because purchasing managers, by virtue of their jobs, have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.”

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