8:15am NY Time US ADP NFP Change Forecast -149K Previous -203K
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY -80K SELL -230K
Our focus today will be on the ADP Employment Release. ADP is the largest private payroll processing providers in the U.S., and it releases its version of Non-Farm Payroll numbers about 2 days before the actual NFP, based on it’s proprietary data. About 80% of the time ADP’s release will go in tandem with the official NFP, but the for the 20% of the exceptions, we’d get figures that could be totally off. This is an excellent indicator for the general risk sentiment of the market as U.S. Employment situation is a global concern; and of course this release sometimes serves as a preview of the NFP on Friday; if the numbers comes out as a surprise of at least 70K more or less from the Forecast of -149K, we should look to trade in the direction of the surprise.
As I usually don’t trade the ADP figure but rather use this release as a reference for future market trend; however, I assume that most investors are likely to do the same, but if the deviation of 70K is actually hit, true speculators will probably have not problem jumping into the market, and this will undoubtedly change market perception on Friday’s NFP release, therefore it is best to be around your computer during the release time rather than finding out what happened hours later and perhaps missed the entire movement.
Related posts:
- US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 11/04/09
- US ADP NFP (Non-farm Payroll) 02/03/10
- US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 01/06/10
- US ADP Non-farm Employment Change 03/31/10
- US ADP NFP Nonfarm Payroll 03/03/2010
- US ADP Non-Farm Payroll Change 09/02/09
- Forex Trade Plan For US ADP NFP Change 12/01/10
- Forex News Trading US ADP NFP Employment Change 01/05/11
- Forex News Trading US ADP NFP Employment Change 02/02/11
- Trading Strategy For US ADP NFP Employment 06/03/10
