US Prelim GDP q/q 11/24/09

8:30am NY Time US Prelim GDP q/q  Forecast 2.9%  Previous 3.5%
ACTION: USD/JPY         BUY 3.2%        SELL 2.6%

Our focus tomorrow will be on the second quarterly release of U.S. GDP numbers.  The first release, or the Advanced GDP release last month, came out surprising upwards; however, the surprise of 3.5% was largely made up by the uptick in Motor Vehicle components, which added 1.66% to the GDP number.  Therefore, the actual GDP release should’ve missed consensus expectation if it wasn’t for the “Cash for Clunkers” program sponsored by the government.

We’ll probably see some downward revision on this second release, as more data become available.  The important fact is to consider the context of the market at the time of the news release, remember market could very well react with “SELL Rumor and BUY on News” today… 

Our deviation is going to be 0.3%, should we get 3.2% release, it would be good for risk appetite sentiment as both USD and JPY weaken; if we get a 2.6%, risk aversion sentiment could once again drive the market as traders demand for the shelter of USD and JPY. 

DEFINITION:

“GDP, which is defined (from wikipedia) as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.” GDP number has a direct effect on the Interest rate of the currency, it is one of the news indicators that affects FOMC’s decision directly.”

Related posts:

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2. UK Final GDP q/q 03/30/2010
3. Forex News Trading UK Prelim GDP q/q 01/25/11
4. Canada GDP (Gross Domestic Product) m/m 10/30/09
5. UK Revised GDP q/q 11/25/09
6. Forex News Trading UK Prelim GDP q/q 04/27/11
7. Forex News Trading UK Prelim GDP q/q 07/26/11
8. UK 2nd Quarter Prelim GDP Analysis & Video 07/23/10
9. UK Revised GDP q/q 02/26/2010
10. UK Revised GDP q/q 05/25/10

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