Australia Employment Changes 11/11/09

7:30pm (NY Time) AU Employment Changes  Forecast -10.0  Previous -40.6K
ACTION: AUD/USD    BUY +15K   SELL -40K

As we know this news release is equivalent to US Nonfarm Payroll changes but for Australia, and it is a high impact report as the job’s market have a direct influence over the health of the economy, which affects inflation, and inflation will affect future RBA monetary policy.  If the actual release is better, it would be good for AUD and we would be looking to BUY AUD/USD, if the actual release is worse, it would be bad for AUD and we should be looking to SELL AUD/USD.

The safe deviation that we are looking for is at least of 30K.  Historically a 30K of difference has produced about 45 pips of movement in the direction of the difference  about 75% of the time, which is more than enough for us to predict market reaction. 

One other important news to pay attention to is the Unemployment Rate, which is expected at 5.8%.  If we do not get a conflict with the Employment Changes, then we will proceed with the plan. 

DEFINITION

“Measures the change in number of employed people during the previous month. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency. Job creation is an important indicator of economic health because consumer spending, which is highly correlated with labor conditions, makes up a large portion of GDP.”

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