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8:30am (NY Time) US NonFarm Payroll Forecast -173K Previous -263K
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY -100K SELL -250K
We will be trading the NFP release number today, which is expected at -173K with a previous release of -263K, which was a disappointment during last NFP release. We’ll wait for the numbers to come out, but will not take any trade YET, even if we get our tradable figures (-100K or -250K). We’ll wait for a possible revision to the previous release number, which is once again -263K, as the market usually overreacts with the Revision; chances favor for this trade to work out if we do not get conflicting releases between the revision and the actual release.
Then the next step is to wait for the Unemployment Rate, which is at 9.9%. Since we are getting close of reaching that double digit of 10.0%, market may focus on this number more than the actual NFP release. Since last month’s release was at 9.8%, consensus expectations are for a slight increase of 0.1%.
With the Equity market pricing in for better than expected releases, we are seeing some pre-market movement of weaker JPY and USD. Should the release surprises to the same direction, market would find another reason to SELL USD and JPY both against other higher yielding currencies.
Of course, as usual, I will trade this release live and post the recording back in this blog. Therefore, stay tuned.
DEFINITION
“Measures the change in number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency. Job creation is an important indicator of economic health because consumer spending, which is highly correlated with labor conditions, makes up a large portion of GDP. This report is the first of the month that relates to labor conditions, making it susceptible to big surprises.”
Related posts:
- US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 12/04/09
- US NFP Nonfarm Payroll Employment Change 04/02/10
- US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 02/05/10
- US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 01/08/10
- US Nonfarm Payroll NFP Employment Change 03/05/2010
- Forex Trading Strategy For Nonfarm Payroll Employment Change (NFP) 07/02/10
- Trading The U.S. Nonfarm Payroll 06/04/10
- US Non-Farm Employment Change (NFP) 10/02/09
- US Nonfarm Payroll Changes 09/04/09
- Canada Employment Changes 11/06/09
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Hey Henry…
Since Fridays NFP number was only -17% instead of your -70% trigger % …..would u have taken the trade with a 9.9% Unemployment #
thanks Henry,
Joe
Joe: If the Unemployment was 9.9 I would probably called a no trade… but I would still have taken the 2nd trade with EY, because the market was looking good for it.
Henry
Yup..thats what I was thinking on Friday..when the numbers came out..
and that 10.2% is just the folks they can still count..that doesn’t include the poor folks who have fell off the charts..depleated there unemployment funds..
Lets hope it improves soon…for all of us
thanks Henry,
Joe
Henry,
I just signed up with your program this morning after watching your video on the NFP number of 10.2%. What happened? I was expecting that this would cause s&P to go down and dollar to go up. Instead the opposite happened. What is your analysis of this event? Thanks!
Thierry:
Thank you very much. There is a current issue of weekly outlook in the membership area, please read it as the answer to your question is explained there in detail.
Henry
It is better than watching the 25th Hour broker scene.
Johnson
Henry,
I signed up with your program last week friday,to learn your trading news release techniques since pending order techniques was discouraged due to the fact that certain brokers uses slippage to frustrate upcoming traders like us.please advise on the way forward to enable me follow up.Thanks
hello it me edem and i will like to know more about the work
hi herny liu,
i brought your book in december 2008 and i want to surcribe for your monthly trading room which is 49usd, but in your site after open ,i dont understand what you mean by conpon code,pls can you explain what one mean and why i can find mine conpon number? i will be expecting your reply . thanks
Pleas email support for more help. This is obvious a support issue. Thanks. support [at] newsprofiteer [dot] com
tanx for all your surpport. i will want to ask if there is any mannual that explains how to frade the news by you
dapo:
Check out my website, I sell an ebook that explains the whole news trading in detail.
newsprofiteer.com
Henry
Hello Henry liu,
Thank u so much for all tha tradin signals you have been sending. the truth is that have not been able to practice, but am trying to.
Am new into forex trading and ur support is needed .
The alert sent for today 6 Nov 09, lets take a look at the 8:30am news were u gave BUY -100K SELL -250K USD/ JPY or CHF, but the actual was -190k what am i espected to do in a situation like this.
Thanks.
Do nothing. If the number does not match, usually you do nothing.
However, in this case we had worse unemployment rate, which was a signal to go short on JPY crosses.
Please watch the video for more information.
Henry
thanks for all the trading news. mr henry i tried to install the meter on my platform, when close after opening it will go off. what should i do am using fx open
eme:
Try to use FXDD demo and see if it works.
Henry
GUY I RALLY LIKE THE WAY U DO THINGS SO GO AHAND AND TELL ME HOW TO JOIN U GUYS IN MAKE IT IN THIS FOREX OF A THING BECOS I HAVE TRY WAT I CAN BUT I CAN\’T BUT THIS TIME THINK I HAVE FIND WHAT IAM LOOKING FOR
Okoro:
Thanks and wait for the next few hours, I am going to send you guys a nice gift video.
Henry