US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 02/05/10

Posted by Henry Liu on February 4, 2010 under Forex News Trade, US Non-Farm Payroll, USA | Be the First to Comment

8:30m (NY Time) US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Changes       Forecast 10K       Previous -85K
(Unemployment Rate 10.0%)

ACTION: EUR/USD               SELL -60K USD/JPY                 SELL 80K EUR/USD

We’ll be trading the NFP release today, which is expected at +10K with a previous release of -85K; if you remember what happened last NFP, you’d know that the last release disappointed the market and kept USD under pressure for the better part of the months as after a revision of November NFP to a positive number, the December release brought back concerns over the rate of economic recovery.  At the time of writing this analysis, market is in full risk aversion mode.

Canada Employment Change 02/05/10

Posted by Henry Liu on under CAD Employment Change, Canada, Forex News Trade | Be the First to Comment

7:00am CA Employment Change     Forecast 15.2K    Previous -2.6K       (Unemployment Rate     8.5%)
ACTION:             BUY -15K       SELL 45K            USD/CAD

We’ll be focusing on the Canadian Employment Change report today, which is going to be the first of two high impact news releases for this Friday, with NFP being the second event scheduled just 90 minutes later.  We are looking for a surprise factor (trigger, deviation) of 30K as usual, therefore if we get a positive 45K of release, we’ll look to SELL USD/CAD (or even EUR/CAD); on the other hand, if we get a -15K of release, we’ll look to BUY the USD/CAD pair.

Canada IVEY PMI 02/04/10

Posted by Henry Liu on February 3, 2010 under CAD Ivey PMI, Canada, Forex News Trade | Be the First to Comment

10:00am (NY Time) CA IVEY PMI      Forecast 52.3    Previous 48.4
ACTION:  USD/CAD    SELL 55.5    BUY 49.0

We’ll be focusing once again on the IVEY PMI from Canada today, it is the equivalent of both ISM PMI’s out of US where purchasing managers of all sectors of the economy participate in this survey.  And as with PMIs, they are all considered as leading indicators with the medium point at 50, therefore a reading of  above 50 would be considered as expansion in the economy whereas a reading below 50 would be considered as contraction in the economy.

ECB Trichet Press Conference 02/04/10

Posted by Henry Liu on under EUR ECB Press Conference, Europe, Forex News Trade | Be the First to Comment

8:30am NY Time ECB Chairman Trichet Press Conference
ACTION: N/A

We’ll be participating ECB (European Central Bank) Chairman Jean-Claude Trichet press conference today and he is going to be releasing the official ECB Interest Rate Statement along with a brief Q&A Session… Here is an overview of the situation

ECB Minimum Bid Rate Decision 02/04/10

Posted by Henry Liu on under EUR ECB Interest Rate, Europe, Forex News Trade | Be the First to Comment

7:45am (NY Time) EU ECB Rate Decision  Forecast 1.00%  Previous 1.00%
ACTION: EUR/USD       N/A

ECB (European Central Bank) is expected to leave its official interest rate at 1.00% or unchanged once again this month.  The majority of analysts surveyed seems to agree to this sentiment as  ECB is likely to keep rates unchaged at the current level until 2011 as the Euro Zone is still plagued with the imbalanced economic recovery of its member countries, especially Greece… As a matter of fact, should Greece default from unable to fulfill its debt obligations, the entire Euro Zone will suffer greatly and EUR could depreciate even below parity against the USD.

UK BOE Official Bank Rate Decision 02/04/10

Posted by Henry Liu on under Forex News Trade, Great Britain, UK Interest Rate | Be the First to Comment

7:00am (NY Time) UK Offcial Bank Rate Decision  Forecast 0.50%   Previous 0.50%
ACTION: GBP/USD      N/A

UK’s BOE, Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is scheduled to release their interest rate decision today and the consensus expectations are to keep current rates at 0.50% and APF (Asset Purchasing Facility) at 200 Billion Pound.  The important focus today will be the decision concerning the APF program as it is expected to expire later this month.  If MPC decides to take a “wait and see” stance on the APF, expect to see GBP soaring against other majors as this is a strong message reflecting the recovery of UK’s economy.

Australia Retail Sales 02/03/10

Posted by Henry Liu on February 2, 2010 under AUD Retail Sales, Australia, Forex News Trade | Be the First to Comment

7:30pm NY Time AU Retail Sales  Forecast 0.3%   Previous 1.4%
ACTION:         BUY 0.9%      SELL -0.3%      AUD/USD

We’ll be focusing once again today on the Australian Retail Sales m/m release and we are looking for a deviation of 0.6% from the forecast release of 0.3%. If we get a 0.9% or -0.3%, we’d get in either on a LONG or SHORT trade depending on the release with a high probability of seeing the market move over 50 pips in the next 2 hours.

US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 02/03/10

Posted by Henry Liu on under Forex News Trade, US ISM Manufacturing, USA | Be the First to Comment

10:00am NY Time  US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI     Forecast 51.1  Previous 49.8
ACTION:   BUY 53.5     SELL 48.5      USD/JPY

We’ll be looking to trade the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, or better known as the Services PMI; it is a leading indicator of the nation’s Services sector, as many investors look at this release for immediate directional preferences on the future of the economy.  With the current analyst’s expectation above the 50 level at 51.1, in the event that 53.5 is reached, we could see USD strength returning to the market as JPY weakens across the board; however, if the opposite is true, or 48.5 figure is released, expect to see stronger JPY and possibly risk aversion driven market.

US ADP NFP (Non-farm Payroll) 02/03/10

Posted by Henry Liu on under Forex News Trade, US ADP NFP Changes, USA | Be the First to Comment

8:15am NY Time US ADP NFP Change      Forecast -31K     Previous -84K
ACTION: USD/JPY       BUY +50K         SELL -100K

Our focus will be on the ADP NFP Employment Release once again today, and because ADP is the largest private payroll processing providers in the U.S., traders tend to pay more focus to this release. ADP releases its version of Non-Farm Payroll numbers about 2 days before the actual NFP based on it’s proprietary data. About 80% of the time ADP’s release will go in tandem with the official NFP, but the for the 20% of the exceptions,  we’d get figures that could be totally off from the official NFP forecast.

UK Services PMI 02/03/10

Posted by Henry Liu on under Forex News Trade, Great Britain, UK Services PMI | Be the First to Comment

4:30am (NY Time) UK Services PMI     Forecast 56.6     Previous 56.8
ACTION: GBP/USD                        BUY 58.6         SELL 54.6

We will be focusing on the Services PMI figure today and our minimum deviation is 2.0 from the forecast release figure.  If we get at least 58.6 or better, we could see some demand in the GBP and we will consider BUYING GBP/USD or GBP/JPY pairs.  If we get a 54.7 or worse release, GBP could weaken and we should look to SELL GBP/USD or GBP/JPY pairs.

RBA Cash Rate Decision 02/01/10

Posted by Henry Liu on February 1, 2010 under AUD Interest Rate, Australia, Forex News Trade | Be the First to Comment

10:30pm (NY Time) AU RBA Rate Decision     Forecast 4.00%    Previous 3.75%
ACTION: AUD/USD  N/A

Reserve Bank of Australia  (RBA) is going to hike its official cash rate once again to 4.00% as it is widely expected by the majority economists surveyed by both Bloomberg and Reuters.  Majority of economists expected a pause in today’s rate decision back in December of 2009, and many of them had apparently jumped ship and are now on the side of a rate hike… As a matter of fact, there are rumors floating of a possible hike of 1/2 percent instead of the 1/4 percent forecast-ed… 

US ISM Manufacturing PMI 02/01/10

Posted by Henry Liu on under Forex News Trade, US ISM Manufacturing | Be the First to Comment

10:00am NY Time  US ISM Manufacturing PMI     Forecast 55.5  Previous 54.9
ACTION:   BUY 58.0      SELL 53.0      USD/JPY

Our focus today is to trade the ISM Manufacturing PMI during the New York Trading session, and our tradable deviation for a safe trade is 2.5 points either way.  In the event we get a better than expected release, this could once again fuel the recent bullish rally of USD; however, if the release is negative, below or close to the medium 50 level, we could see some correction in the recent rally of the greenback…  Since this is a leading indicator, investors pay more attention to this release for signs of market direction this month and possibly trend change.

UK Manufacturing PMI 02/01/10

Posted by Henry Liu on under Forex News Trade, Great Britain, UK Manufacturing PMI | Be the First to Comment

4:30am (NY Time) UK Manufacturing PMI  Forecast 54.1   Previous 54.1
ACTION: GBP/USD        BUY 56.1         SELL 52.1

Our focus for today will be on the Manufacturing PMI number from UK and it’s forecasted at 52.0; UK PMI’s medium point is 50, therefore this forecast is considered as a positive release (above the 50 level means expansion in the manufacturing sector).

We are looking for a tradable deviation of 2.0, and because this is a leading indicator and its impact may affect the future trend of this currency for the remainder of the week or even for the month of February, market should react to this release with volatility should we get out deviation.  We can expect GBP/USD to move 50 pips within the hour if you deviation is hit. 

US Advanced GDP q/q 01/29/10

Posted by Henry Liu on January 28, 2010 under Forex News Trade, US GDP q/q, USA | 3 Comments to Read

8:30am (NY Time) US ADV GDP q/q     Forecast 4.5%     Previous 2.2%
ACTION: USD/JPY USD/CHF                     BUY 4.8%                SELL 4.2%

Our main focus tomorrow will be on the fourth quarterly (Q4) release of U.S. Advanced GDP number.  Analysts are split with their expectations on this release as it could go either way.  We are looking for a minimum deviation of 0.3% on the forecasted figure of 4.5%.  Therefore if we get a 4.8% on the advanced 4th quarter GDP, it would be US Dollar positive.  We will BUY USD/JPY.  However, if we get a 4.2% release, then we would be SELLING USD/JPY. With USD being regarded as safe-haven currency, if we get a worse than expected number, we might still see USD getting stronger as traders scramble to BUY US Treasuries, making USD stronger than most european currencies such as Euro and Sterling, especially in this risk aversion driven market.

Canada GDP m/m 01/29/10

Posted by Henry Liu on under CAD GDP m/m, Canada, Forex News Trade | Be the First to Comment

8:30am NY Time Canada GDP m/m   Forecast 0.3%      Previous 0.2%
ACTION: USD/CAD         BUY 0.0%     SELL 0.6%

We’ll be looking at the Canadian GDP release (m/m) today, and GDP is defined (by wikipedia) as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.”  As GDP is basically the measurement of the “economy” as a whole and it certainly has a strong impact on the cash rate of the CAD, it’ll be a highly anticipated news event… with that being said however, we’ll also have the USD quarterly advanced GDP release at the same time… The whole world will be focused on that release, therefore I’d definitely look at the US release first before jumping in any trades…

New Zealand RBNZ Official Cash Rate 01/27/10

Posted by Henry Liu on January 26, 2010 under Forex News Trade, NZD Interest Rate, New Zealand | Be the First to Comment

3:00pm (NY Time)  RBNZ Rate Decision   Forecast 2.50%    Previous 2.50%
ACTION: NZD/USD        BUY 2.75%     SELL Unchanged

RBNZ is once again expected to keep rates unchanged at the current level of 2.50% in this meeting, as unanimously agreed by all economists surveyed from different news companies.  As a matter of fact, aside from the bullish statement during last RBNZ rate decision from Governor Bollard, there seems to be no other fundamental reasons supporting a rate hike for NZD in the near future.

US FOMC Federal Funds Rate Decision 01/27/10

Posted by Henry Liu on under Forex News Trade, US Interest Rate, USA | Be the First to Comment

2:15pm (NY Time) US FOMC Rate Decision     Forecast 0.25%  Previous 0.25%
ACTION: USD/JPY       BUY 0.50%    SELL <0.25%

FOMC is going to release its short-term interest rate decision for the first time in 2010 and mosts analysts agree that FOMC will keep current rates unchanged until Q3 or Q4 of this year, if not 2011.  As the Federal Reserve may need more economic data to justify a surprise hike in the interest rate, this rate decision will probably go as expected (or unchanged). 

US New Home Sales 01/27/10

Posted by Henry Liu on under Forex News Trade, US New Home Sales, USA | Be the First to Comment

10:00am (NY Time) US New Home Sales   Forecast 372K  Previous 355K
ACTION: USD/JPY or USD/CHF        BUY 440K    SELL 300K

We’ll be looking to the the New Home Sales, which is expected at 372K; our tradable deviation is going to be 70K, so if the release is lower, it would strengthen risk aversion sentiment and we should look to SELL USD/JPY or possible the USD/CHF pair; if the number is higher, it would fuel risk appetite sentiment, we may see a rally in USD/JPY or USD/CHF. 

Australia CPI q/q 01/26/10

Posted by Henry Liu on January 25, 2010 under AUD CPI q/q, Australia, Forex News Trade | 2 Comments to Read

7:30pm AU CPI q/q         Forecast 0.4%      Previous 1.0%
ACTION: AUD/USD        BUY 0.7%      SELL 0.0%

We’ll be lookign to trade the quarterly CPI release out of Australia.  As reflected in recent RBA rate statements, Australia is facing  rise in inflation, and this number could surprise to the upside.  RBA hiked rates last few rate decisions, and with a surprise better than expected release, we could have justification for further rate hike. 

UK Prelim GDP q/q 01/26/10

Posted by Henry Liu on under Forex News Trade, Great Britain, UK GDP q/q | Be the First to Comment

4:30am (NY Time) UK GDP q/q       Forecast 0.4%    Previous -0.2%
ACTION: (GBP/USD)                               BUY 0.7%                 SELL 0.0%

We’ll be trading the much anticipated UK Prelim GDP q/q for Q4 2009.  As we know, GDP is defined as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.”  GDP is the basically direct measure of the economy’s health, and a stronger GDP means that the central bank will more likely to raise interest to curb inflation.

US Existing Home Sales 01/25/10

Posted by Henry Liu on under Forex News Trade, US Existing Home Sales, USA | 4 Comments to Read

10:00am NY Time US Existing Home Sales    Forecast 5.95M     Previous 6.54M
ACTION: USD/JPY          BUY 6.35M            SELL 5.55M

We’ll be trading the Existing Home Sales, and since Housing news is one of the more important news event out of the US, this news release will certainly cause some volatility especially if our tradable figures were hit. It is important to consider that if we get a better than expected release, USD could suffer somewhat from risk appetite sentiment as signs of housing recovery translate into equity gains; however, a worse release may boost USD demand as investors seek safe-haven shelter in U.S. Treasury.  But the reaction of USD may be different against other pairs… for instance, a better release should be bearish for EUR/USD; a worse than expected release will be bad for USD/JPY… 

Canada Core Retail Sales m/m 01/22/10

Posted by Henry Liu on January 21, 2010 under CAD Core Retail Sales, Canada, Forex News Trade | Be the First to Comment

8:30am NY Time Canada Core Retail Sales    Forecast 0.3%    Previous 0.2%
ACTION: USD/CAD        BUY -0.3%         SELL 0.9%

We’ll be focusing on Core Retail Sales release from Canada and not the headline release; the core release as a forecast expectation of 0.3% with a previous release at 0.2%.  Core Retail Sales release is a month on month release, and it’s a measurement of the activities at the retail level of Canada, excluding most volatile Automobile Sales Components, which makes up about 25% of Retail Sales headline number. A better release means more consumer spending, which leads to better economy, thus better for its currency.  And of course the CORE reading provides a far more accurate look of the actual economy as the automotive component could fluctuate per season.

UK Retail Sales m/m 01/22/10

Posted by Henry Liu on under Forex News Trade, Great Britain, UK Retail Sales | Be the First to Comment

4:30am (NY Time) UK Retail Sales   Forecast 1.3%   Previous -0.3%
ACTION: GBP/USD         BUY 1.9%       SELL 0.7%

We’ll be looking to tradethe Retail Sales release today from UK, it is a month on month release and it’s a direct measurement of consumer activities at the retail levels.  A higher release is generally good for the economy, thus better for it’s currency; a lower release is considered as negative for the economy and not good for it’s currency.  Retail Sales makes up a hugepart of the GDP, and the effect of this release could be very profound given the current risk averse condition of the market.

New Zealand Retail Sales 01/20/10

Posted by Henry Liu on January 19, 2010 under Forex News Trade, NZD Retail Sales, New Zealand | 2 Comments to Read

4:45pm (NY Time)       NZ Retail Sales Forecast 0.6%  Previous 0.3%
ACTION: NZD/USD      BUY 1.2%      SELL 0.0%

Today we’ll trade the Retail Sales release out of New Zealand… Retail Sales release is the measurement of consumer spending in the retail sector, as it reflects the strength of the economy and the strength of consumer spending. We’ll be looking for a difference (or deviation) of at least 0.6% from the Forecasted number, therefore a positive 1.2% (or better) will be somewhat bullish signal for NZD and a 0.0% (or worse) will be a bearish signal for NZD.  We’ll look for entries after the release in the direction of the signal, provided that the market shows initial confirmation in the direction of the release first, coupled with a decent retracement for proper risk to reward ratio, then we’ll make our entry.

UK MPC Meeting Minutes 01/20/10

Posted by Henry Liu on under Forex News Trade, Great Britain, UK MPC Vote Minutes | Be the First to Comment

4:30am NY Time UK MPC Meeting Minutes          Forecast 0-0-9     Previous 0-0-9
ACTION: GBP/USD           N/A

MPC, Monetary Policy Committee, from Bank of England (BOE) will be releasing their meeting minutes over the Rate Decision meeting held 2 weeks ago along with the actual vote count over the rate decision and the APF program.  If you recall, MPC decided leave both interested rate and APF unchanged but BOE Official Sentance was particularly bullish during the last week and brought about expectations of the end of QE (Quantitative Easing) program.  This action provided an immediate short-term bullish rally for the British Pound as traders and speculators both are expecting a much more bullish stance from BOE.

New Zealand CPI q/q 01/19/10

Posted by Henry Liu on January 18, 2010 under Forex News Trade, NZD CPI q/q | Be the First to Comment

4:45pm (NY Time) NZ CPI q/q    Forecast 0.0%   Previous 1.3%
ACTION: NZD/USD       BUY 1.1%      SELL 0.5% 

Our focus will be on the headline CPI number. If we get a better than expected number of 0.0% by 0.3%, we should be looking to BUY NZD/USD; if we get a lower -0.3%, then we’ll see NZD/USD move down.

With recent RBNZ (Reserve Bank of New Zealand) unexpected hawkish statement by Governor Bollard, market is widely expecting RBNZ to hike interest rate mid this year, following its neighbor Australia as both economies are closely correlated.  As this release will undoubtedly push that speculation to a new level since it would either give RBNZ Governor Bollard justification to hike rates, or turn speculation of an early rate hike off.  

BOC Overnight Rate Decision 01/19/10

Posted by Henry Liu on under CAD Interest Rate, Forex News Trade | Be the First to Comment

9:00am (NY Time) CA BOC Rate Decision   Forecast 0.25%      Previous 0.25%
ACTION:  USD/CAD  Depend on Market Condition

BOC (Bank of Canada) will renders its Overnight Rate decisions for the first time in 2010, and today’s meeting will be watched by traders and speculators since interest rate policy serves as a tool to curb inflation and maintain price stability, this news event is probably the most important event for the day.

This is what I wrote for the last BOC rate decision, I think the situation still remains mostly unchanged:

UK CPI y/y 01/19/10

Posted by Henry Liu on under Forex News Trade, Great Britain, UK CPI y/y | Be the First to Comment

4:30am (NY Time) UK CPI y/y    Forecast 2.6%         Previous 1.9%
ACTION: GBP/USD        BUY 2.9%      SELL 2.3%

We’ll be trading the CPI release out of UK today and our surprise factor (or deviation) is  at 0.3%.  If the yearly Inflation number increases to a surprise of 2.9%, which is over BOE’s inflation target, we will BUY of GBP/USD.  If the Inflation number decreases to 2.3% or remain at the same level as last release, (1.9%) we’ll look to SELL GBP/USD.  Historically, even with a small difference of 0.1%, market tend to overreac.  If our deviation is hit, there is a probability of over 80% that the market will move 50 pips within the next 30 minutes.

US Core CPI m/m 01/15/10

Posted by Henry Liu on January 14, 2010 under Forex News Trade, US Core CPI m/m, USA | 2 Comments to Read

8:30am (NY Time) US Core CPI m/m  Forecast 0.1%  Previous 0.1%
ACTION: USD/JPY        BUY 0.3%      SELL -0.1%

We’ll be trading the Core CPI release today and our surprise factor (or deviation) is 0.2%;  if the release number (core) increases to a minimum 0.3% then we will BUY USD (either SELL EUR/USD or BUY USD/JPY).  If the CPI number decreases to -0.1% or less, we’ll SELL USD (BUY EUR/USD or SELL USD/JPY).  Historically even at a difference of 0.1%, market islikely to to exaggerate its move, therefore if either of our tradable releases is hit, there is about 80% of chance market will move 50 pips.  If you remember what I wrote last time, this is exactly the same consensus expectation as the market is looking at a low yet steady growth in U.S. Inflation for quite some time now…

US Core Retail Sales 01/14/10

Posted by Henry Liu on January 13, 2010 under Forex News Trade, US Retail Sales, USA | Be the First to Comment

8:30am (NY Time) US Core Retail Sales    Forecast 0.3%  Previous 1.2%
8:30am (NY Time) US Retail Sales                            Forecast 0.4%      Previous 1.3%
ACTION: USD/JPY  (CORE)    BUY 1.0%        SELL -0.3%

We’ll be focusing on the Core Retail Sales figure out of U.S. today. We have both retail sales (healine and core, also know as ex auto) scheduled to be released at exactly 8:30am along with Trichet’s press conference; however, since Trichet may delay his press conference a bit, we should focus on this news and then possibly go back to Trichet later.  Obviously it is important to trade other pairs than the EUR/USD.